Let’s start with how this Winter Season has behaved so far. We started with a record breaking warm December, with very little, to no snowfall for the month, here in the M/A and much of the Northeast.
As we started the New Year, signs pointed to a gradual pattern change as we approached mid-January. A colder pattern with near and below normal temperatures evolved nicely, as forecasted. Then came the whopper Snowstorm/Blizzard in late January (22nd-23rd) which dumped from 10″ to 36″ of snowfall across the entire M/A region. Many spots receiving their entire seasonal snowfall with this one huge storm !
This is very common to see big storms with moderate to Strong El Ninos ! In most cases these bigger snow events and colder weather occur during the second half / later parts of the Winter Season. So, with that being said, and already getting 1 big storm in late January, what’s in store for February and March ???
We continue to be influenced by a Strong El Nino, that should remain strong through the month of February. This will continue to keep the Southern branch of the jet stream very active into at least early Spring. Teleconnections continue to favor a colder pattern and active Northern Branch of the Jet stream, which will deliver several bouts of cold air and troughs in the East. This combined with a strong and active subtropical jet stream associated with El Nino, will one again bring more trouble ! This is good news for the snow lovers who would like to see 2 to 3 more snow events, before we close out the Winter Season.
So will we see more snow events and colder temperatures for February 2016 ? YES
The potential is there to see 1 more big snowstorm of 8″ or more this month, and at least a couple minor (2″-4″) to moderate snow (4″-8″) events. I’m forecasting Temperatures to be Below Normal at -2.0 F to -4.0 F across the M/A Region. There will be several days where temps reach the 50’s and even the 60’s, but most days We’ll see the 30’s and 40’s with a few days even colder in the 20’s. This might not seem that cold, but relative to average for February, we should wind up Below normal. In addition, remember average temps really start to climb towards the end of the month, as we approach Spring and the month of March.
Both Precip and Snowfall will be Above Normal. Any mild periods will be short lived mainly during the first week and end of the month. The best chance for snow and colder temps will be between Feb 7th through the 25th.
Stay tuned for updates here on my Blog and Facebook in the coming days, for any potential snow threats, which I’m confident will occur.