It looks like some soaking rainfall will be in store for much of the Mid-Atlantic from Virginia to the Delaware Valley, between Tuesday and Wednesday Night. A storm system will develop over the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and will then move Northeastward into the Ohio Valley by later Wednesday. A strong SW flow of very moist but mild air will occur on the eastern side of the storm track. Most areas along and east of the Apps will see rain from this event. On the Western side of the storm track, colder air and snow will occur from parts of the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley.
As this storm pulls Northeast into Eastern Canada later this week, a strong cold front and shot of much colder air will move into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during next weekend. Temperature Anomalies will be Below Normal and a clipper system / Arctic front will bring some light snow and Flurries to parts of the Northern M/A on Saturday night into Sunday. The coldest of air will likely set up between Sunday Feb 29th through Wednesday March 2nd.
This is when things could get quite interesting from parts of the Interior SE and into the M/A States. Sub-tropical moisture will try to become injected into the lower part of the Trough axis and interact with the colder air. Over-running and a possible Southern storm system will try to develop and move ENE to the M/A Coast around March 1st or 2nd. With cold air in place during this time frame, the potential is there for a possible significant early March snow event.
All 3 Global Models: Both The 00z and 12z runs of the GFS / EURO / GGEM are pointing to this possible significant snow event for the Interior SE and entire M/A Region, around March 1st and 2nd. It’s during this time frame, between Feb 28th through around March 5th, that the overall pattern will be primed and ready for some below normal temps and snow or mixed precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic Region. For now, I’m laying it out there as a potential threat. As we get closer, I’ll do another post during the middle or later part of this upcoming week, so stay tuned !