As advertised in my February Outlook, We are heading for some much colder weather and possibly several snow events, especially towards mid February. This is now looking very likely !
So let’s start with this upcoming week Feb 8th – Feb 14th
The main headline for this upcoming week will be turning much colder, with a touch of snow between Monday Night and Tuesday Night. The real cold air moves in between Wednesday and into next weekend. Temperatures will be running about 10 to 15 Degrees below normal during this time frame. So, if your normal High’s are mid to upper 40’s, you’ll be seeing Highs in the low to mid 30’s and lows in the mid teens to low 20’s. (I’m using LYH, VA as an example).
I’m keeping a close eye on a rather minor to possibly moderate snow event for Monday night into Tuesday night, for much of the M/A States. At this time the best chance for the highest snow amounts will be towards the Northern M/A, from near BWI to PHL and the Delaware Valley Region. Most of the snow will fall Tuesday into Tuesday night across these areas, with a 2″-4″ event being a pretty good bet, but 3″-6″ is not out of the question. I’ll be sure to update and have more details on Monday.
Much of this event will be caused from Upper Level energy and CAA (Cold Air Advection) which will induce instability and more convective type precipitation. During the beginning of the event, most precipitation will be showery and periodic in nature. But as the strung out energy reaches the coast on Tuesday, a weak area of low pressure will develop near and just off the M/A Coast, near VA or the Delmarva coast. This will help enhance snow on Tuesday and into Tuesday night, mainly between Baltimore/DCA and points northeast into The Delaware Valley, so the higher snowfall amounts are likely there. These types of systems and setups are tricky to forecast and the Norlun trough may come into play. This is an Inverted trough and becomes stretched out energy, that sets up over a meso scale region. This can cause moderate to heavier bands of snow to develop from the Low and points Northwest.
For much of SW and Central VA: This will be a minor event with Rain and Snow showers on Monday changing to some snow showers during Monday night and into Tuesday.
ROA & CHO, VA areas: 1″- 2″.
LYH, VA to RIC VA will see a Coating to 1″.
Further north towards Northern VA and to the Delmarva region, 1″-3″ of snow is possible, mainly Later Monday night into Tuesday Evening.
The main headline after this event shifts to the much colder weather that rushes in on Wednesday and continues into next weekend. It appears no big threats of snow or storms occur between Feb 10th through the 14th. This will be a Very Cold but Dry period.
As we head into the following week from Feb 15th through the 21st, things get very interesting for a potentially bigger snow event, with moderate cold continuing. I’ll have more on this as we get closer to this time frame. For now just a heads up, that we could see a bigger snow event and big storm during this 3rd week of February.